The UK government is grappling with significant opposition from Labour MPs over its proposed welfare reforms, despite announcing concessions aimed at softening the impact of disability benefits cuts. As the government prepares for a crucial vote on Tuesday, Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall emphasized the goal of creating a "fairer, more compassionate" benefits system.

Concessions and Modelling

The reforms, initially expected to push 250,000 people into poverty by 2030, have been revised, with new estimates suggesting 150,000 could be affected. The government has scaled back its proposals, reducing the projected savings from £5bn to £2bn annually. A Downing Street spokesperson noted that the modelling remains "subject to uncertainty."

Key Changes to Disability Benefits

Under pressure from Labour MPs, Prime Minister Keir Starmer has limited cuts to the personal independence payment (Pip) to new claimants only. Additionally, the government reversed its plan to freeze the health-related component of universal credit, allowing it to rise with inflation for existing recipients. A review of the Pip assessment process, led by Disabilities Minister Sir Stephen Timms, will involve collaboration with disabled individuals.

Ongoing Opposition

Despite these concessions, many Labour MPs remain unconvinced. Clive Efford, a long-serving Labour MP, expressed his continued opposition, citing concerns over the £3.5bn in required savings and the potential poverty impact. Vicky Foxcroft, who resigned as Labour whip over the issue, called for further improvements and emphasized the need for policies to be co-produced with disabled people.

Political Dynamics and Future Prospects

The government has pledged £300m in employment support over the next three years and plans to introduce regulations allowing disabled individuals to try work without risking their benefits. However, critics are closely watching the timeline for the Pip review, with some advocating for delays in cuts until after its publication.