UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is set to visit China, marking the first visit by a British leader to Beijing in eight years. This trip aims to explore economic opportunities for British businesses while navigating the complex diplomatic landscape between China, the UK, and the US. Starmer's visit comes amid a backdrop of rising global trade tensions and a renewed focus on UK-China relations.

Economic Opportunities and Diplomatic Tightrope

Starmer's visit is accompanied by a delegation of British business leaders, highlighting the potential for economic collaboration. UK exports to China have shown signs of recovery, increasing by 6.4% to £22.6 billion between mid-2024 and 2025. This growth is driven by sectors such as high-tech generators, pharmaceuticals, and services, including finance and technology. Despite these promising figures, the trade relationship remains heavily tilted in China's favor.

In an interview with Bloomberg, Starmer emphasized the importance of engaging with China without compromising national security or the UK's strong ties with the US. "Sticking your head in the sand and ignoring China... wouldn't be sensible," he stated, underscoring the need for a balanced approach.

Human Rights and Strategic Concerns

While economic discussions are at the forefront, human rights issues are also expected to be addressed. Starmer has indicated that he will raise concerns about the treatment of Jimmy Lai, a Hong Kong pro-democracy media tycoon and UK citizen facing a life sentence. The UK has consistently criticized China's human rights record, particularly regarding the Uyghur population in Xinjiang.

Sir Jeremy Hunt, a former foreign secretary, acknowledged the diplomatic challenges Starmer faces, noting the strategic goal of China to "prize apart" the UK-US relationship. "There is a real diplomatic tightrope that Keir Starmer has to walk here," Hunt remarked.

Skepticism and Limited Expectations

Despite the potential for economic collaboration, analysts remain skeptical about the likelihood of significant trade deals emerging from the visit. Sam Goodman of the China Strategic Risks Institute described the expectations for the trip as having a "very low bar," with potential outcomes limited to memorandums of understanding in financial services.

Andrew Small, a former European Commission adviser, echoed this sentiment, highlighting the limited economic gains in an overheated Chinese economy. "There are very marginal gains to be made in a few areas," Small noted, emphasizing the need for realistic expectations.