Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's upcoming visit to China marks a pivotal moment in India's foreign policy as it navigates escalating trade tensions with the United States. Modi is scheduled to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin during the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Tianjin, a trip that underscores India's strategic balancing act between competing global powers.

US-India Trade Tensions Escalate

The backdrop to Modi's visit is a significant deterioration in US-India relations, primarily driven by Washington's decision to double tariffs on Indian exports to 50%. The US has cited India's continued purchase of discounted Russian oil as a major factor, arguing that these transactions indirectly support Moscow's war efforts in Ukraine. This move has strained the previously deepening cooperation between the two nations, which was built on shared technological interests and a mutual desire to counter China's global influence.

India's Strategic Hedging

Despite the growing rift with the US, India remains committed to its policy of strategic autonomy. As a member of both the US-led Indo-Pacific Quad and the China-Russia-led SCO, India seeks to leverage its position by engaging with multiple global powers. Former Indian ambassador Jitendra Nath Misra describes this approach as "hedging," a necessary strategy given India's economic and military constraints compared to superpowers like the US and China.

Modi's Diplomatic Maneuvering

Modi's visit to China is his first in seven years and comes at a time when India-China relations are cautiously stabilizing after the 2020 Galwan Valley clashes. The meeting with Xi Jinping is seen as an opportunity to further thaw relations and explore avenues for increased trade and investment. Analysts like Michael Kugelman suggest that the current US-India crisis provides Modi with a compelling reason to accelerate efforts to ease tensions with China.

Economic Implications and Future Prospects

The economic impact of the US tariffs is substantial, affecting approximately $60.2 billion worth of Indian exports, particularly in labor-intensive sectors such as textiles and jewelry. As India seeks to diversify its trade partnerships, the SCO summit presents an opportunity to strengthen ties with China and Russia, potentially offsetting some of the economic fallout from the US tariffs.